Claire Chiang on eco-sensitive tourism in China

Claire Chiang on eco-sensitive tourism in China

 

China Traveller

June 2009  

 

Q: Average occupancy rates in China?

A: The occupancy rates range from 50% to 70% for newly opened hotels and ‘matured’ hotels that have been operating for 3 years.

 

Q: Local/foreign guest occupancy ratio?

A: The guest ratio at Banyan Tree Lijiang is 35% foreign guests in 2008.

 

Q: Occupancy % of outbound Chinese at Banyan Tree abroad?

A: For Country of Residences as Chinese passport holders, it was 8% in 2008.

 

Q: Definition of environmentally sensitive?  

A: I see the ‘environment’ as being integrated, comprising culture & nature. We are culturally responsible – our resorts reflect a sense of place, we use resources from the area for construction as far as possible, we hire people from the region – and show respect for the local culture, thereby connecting us more closely with the locals. This is for us a longer term investment, as we are recognized for this, and in turn leads to creating a network of partners with similar values.

 

Right from the beginning, CSR has been ingrained in our operations and business values. “Embracing the Environment, Empowering the People” – this simple, effective phrase directs the CSR activities of Banyan Tree. The philosophy aims to drive the company’s triple bottom line (economy, society and environment) and helps generate the company’ sustainable development by assisting those around us. Since Jan 2008, all our resorts must track and report their energy and water consumption, as we aim to achieve a 10% reduction in each year for the next three years in energy consumption, water consumption and waste management.

 

Q: Is being environmentally sensitive good for business?  

A: Banyan Tree’s guests have a myriad of choices for travel destinations. As a resort operator blessed with idyllic locations, if we were not able to protect and share the charm and beauty of such locations, guests would not invest the time, effort and money to visit our sites. For non-resort businesses, environmental considerations are also friendly to the bottom line. Conserving the resources consumed is not only friendly to the environment, but it also reduces recurring operational costs. Investment in an energy saving bulb that may cost twice as much as a comparable incandescent bulb but lasts 5 times longer or reduces energy consumption by 50% is not just the best environmental decision, it is also the most effective business decision.

 

Q: How would you define brand Banyan Tree?

A: As a niche premium brand, Banyan Tree is all about creating unforgettable, deeply personal and cherished memories. It is about the romance of travel and connecting people with a ’sense of place’ through the design and architecture of our resorts, that promotes the uniqueness of indigenous cultures of the place. Our philosophy is based on providing a place for rejuvenation of the body, mind and soul – what we have branded: a Sanctuary for the Senses. Guests can also embark on specially developed experiences to enjoy an authentic taste of the local lifestyle.

 

Q: To what extent are your branding activities in China creating a brand loyalty that outbound travelers insist on staying at Banyan Tree when abroad?

A: Having experienced our Banyan Tree resorts in China, guests always have a keen expectation to return or try another Banyan Tree property that they have not stayed with before. Same in China, as in the rest of the world, the Banyan Tree experience is conceptualized to be like a theatre setting: we create a magical atmosphere where dreams really can come true. We want to evoke emotional responses from our guests; when a Banyan Tree property provides unforgettable experiences, the guests then seek to repeat them elsewhere, and therefore we build our brand loyalty.

 

Q: Methods/tactics to generate better awareness?

A: Through an integrated approach using PR, marketing and sales channels, as well as strategic partnerships with leading travel companies, airlines and banks to leverage on the partners’ influence, reach and resources to generate awareness in China.

 

Q: Most creative or audacious tactic/ strategy/ campaign?  

A: Recently we have launched the XTC (eXtraordinary Travel Consultant) awards to recognize our top performing agents and provide them with the opportunity to sample the Banyan Tree experience for themselves. Through this initiative, it will motivate our agents to further familiarize themselves with our products and in turn, be able to present them more confidently to customers.

 

Q: Any additional comments?

A: Today’s Chinese traveller is seeking rewarding travel experiences and cultural exploration, as opposed to previously when the interest was largely to accumulate as many travel destinations as possible (i.e. the mindset has evolved with more emphasis on the quality of the travel experience, rather than the quantity of places visited).

 

Ms. Claire Chiang is the Senior Vice President of Banyan Tree Holdings Ltd.

Relais & Chateaux Logo

China Traveller

June 2009

 

Independent boutique hotels are sprouting in key tourist destinations in China from Lijiang, Guilin, Xi’An to Shangri-La. Relais & Châteaux, a non-profit hotel and gourmet restaurant association, is looking at China as part of its expansion plans in Asia.

 

Currently, Relais & Châteaux comprises of an exclusive collection of 475 of the finest hotels and gourmet restaurants in 55 countries with two properties in China – Hotel of Modern Art (HOMA) in Guilin and Fortaleza De Sao Tiago Da Barra in Macau.

 

Based in Bangkok, Mr Stéphane Junca, Director of Development-Asia for Relais & Châteaux, who is responsible for developing the brand in the Asia Pacific, was in Shanghai for their inaugural press conference and spoke with China Traveller on their development plans in China and how they define a “Relais & Châteaux” property.

 

Q: Local/foreign guest occupancy ratio?

A:  85% foreigners and 15% local Chinese guests respectively with the later segment growing.

 

Q: Geographical breakdown of foreign clients?

A: 65% European, 20% United States, 15% Asia Pacific.

 

Q: Percentage of Chinese outbound travelers compared to the global market?

A: With Relais & Chateaux at the global level, the Chinese clientele represent less than 1% of the total, having said that we only stared experiencing Chinese visit’s from 2 years ago. Our global customer breakdown is as follows: 

 

France 22%

US-Canada 17%

UK 14%

Germany 10%

Switzerland 6%

Italy 5%

Be-Ne-Lux 5%

Spain 4%

Japan 3%

Australia-NZ 2%

 

Q: How do you define a “Relais & Châteaux” property?

A: They are unique hotels – each “Relais & Châteaux” property is different in each location. From South Africa to Thailand, the hotels are independent and each hotel has their own unique offerings. The property showcases the local characteristics.

Relais & Châteaux hotels do not belong to any hotel chains and they must be in operation for at least a year with less than 100 room keys. The hotels also have restaurants with excellent cuisine. Other than hotels, Relais & Châteaux members also include independent gourmet restaurants.

 

Q: If Relais & Châteaux were a person, how would you describe that person?

A: Relais & Châteaux is discreet and low-key. I would say gourmet as well.

 

Q: How does one become a member of Relais & Châteaux?   

A: Usually we receive applications, the first criterion is for the property to be in operation and we will organize a mystery guest to visit the property to evaluate on our behalf. Other criteria are available on our website. The findings will be evaluated and decided by an elected board from Relais & Châteaux.

 

Q: What are Relais & Châteaux’s expansion plans in China?

A: We are looking at properties in China aggressively and looking to grow the brand. However, the quality of the boutique hotels has not reached a Relais & Châteaux standard. We are still observing. We are constantly searching for great properties that match our values. At the same time, by increasing our properties in China, by being here in the market, we also want to build the brand awareness of Relais & Châteaux amongst the Chinese travelers to visit a Relais & Châteaux property overseas.

 

Q: Who is your target audience in China?

A: We have 1.3 billion Chinese in population. We are happy to get the top 0.5% of the most discerning Chinese travelers. They are for people who know us and once they have tried us once, they will be addicted.

 

Q. What are your target locations in China?

A: We are looking for anywhere with great properties – in Xi’An, in Lijiang, in Shangri-La, in Shanghai and even in Beijing.

 

Q: What is the brand strategy of Relais & Châteaux in China?

A: Our strategy in China is to be here in the market. Let the product speak for itself. We do not use advertising. We are looking to theme the properties in a collection too – for example as “Silk Road” properties or in Japan, we have a collection of “Onsen” properties. In South Africa, we can have a chain of properties along the wineries.

 

Frenchman Stéphane Junca is Director of Development-Asia for Relais & Châteaux, responsible for developing the brand in the Asia-Pacific. Currently based in Bangkok, he was appointed in 2006 and has since inspected over 150 hotels and boosted the brand’s regional portfolio of exclusive small hotels and restaurants to 23.

 

Jamie Lee, Chief Representative of LAWA/ LA INC China Office

Jamie Lee, Chief Representative of LAWA/ LA INC China Office

 

 China Traveller

May 2009

 

Q: Description of foreign travellers to LA in 2008?

A: LA received 2,345,741 foreign travellers in 2008. Our largest foreign market was Asia with 892,951 arrivals comprising Japan (279,748), South Korea (157,389), Chinese Taipei (108,267), Mainland China (83,327) and Hong Kong (36,530) leading the group. Europe produced the second largest regional group of arrivals with 824,512.

 

Q: What impact has ADS had on Chinese arrivals?

A: Prior to ADS, arrivals from China grew at 10% but it is currently growing at 20 – 30%. This needs to be seen in the context of Japanese arrivals experiencing double digit decline. 

 

Q: Breakdown of Chinese travellers by geographic location?

A: Beijing is responsible for the largest share of arrivals evident with its 7 flights per week. Shanghai also has 7 flights per week but includes cancelations from time to time, while Guangzhou has 4 flights per week. Beijing delivers a mix of travellers with various purposes while Shanghai is mostly for business and Guangzhou mainly for leisure travel. 2nd and 3rd tier cities also make a strong contribution with an estimated 30% of Beijing’s travellers originating in outlying cities.

 

Q: How has the financial crisis affected Chinese arrivals?

A: According to our January 2009 arrival figures there has been no impact thus far.

 

Q: When did LA INC establish representation in China?

A: We were the first US city-level tourism office to be approved by CNTA and consequently established our office in 2006. To date we do not know of other cities that have the same approval and thus they operate through PR companies.

 

Q: How is LA perceived by Chinese travellers?

A: LA is a recognised city with Hollywood playing a prominent role. There are both good and bad misconceptions however, but generally expectations are extremely high. Part of our job at LA INC is to moderate expectations, (e.g. they will not necessarily meet any of the Hollywood stars), ensure that the correct messages are disseminated that our visitors have a positive experience and return again in the future. 

 

Q: Characteristics of average Chinese traveller to LA?

A: Previously it was dominated by government officials attending functions and events, but now it has shifted to leisure groups. We still maintain a good mix of leisure and function purposes groups as LA is a must visit place with perfect weather all year round. Roughly 70% of our travellers come in groups while business travellers account for 10% and 5% independent travellers.

 

Q: Greatest challenge to promoting LA in China?

A: Sending out the correct messages and ensure that tour operators don’t package tours at too much of a discount that might have a negative impact of the traveller’s experience. We want to ensure we are offering the correct value.

 

Q: Measures taken to combat effects of financial crisis?

A: Hotels etc., have already reduced their prices. We are utilizing the time to conduct proper in-house training and improve strategic relations to ensure we are 100% ready when the crisis subsides and the market explodes.

 

Q: Who are your natural competitors (domestic and abroad)?

A: Domestically we all work together. Internationally our competitors are generally English speaking long haul destinations.

 

Q: LA’s strategy for attracting increased Chinese travellers?

A: We are looking towards the future of FIT travellers from China. With the maturing of the market, we expect China’s 1st tier cities to be more inclined towards FIT travel within three years.

 

Q: Tactics to promote LA in China?

A: We engage in media interviews and FAM tours. On a limited basis we also conduct receptive trainings which are coordinated with tour operators. We will also be coordinating more road shows into other provinces such as Hunan, Hebei and Shanxi etc.

 

Q: Most creative campaign undertaken?

A: China’s first Olympic gold medal was won at the 1984 Olympics in Los Angeles and accordingly last year on the 8th of August we organised an event with LA officials, Chinese sports persons, media and travel agents to celebrate that history. Corresponding visits were undertaken including a gold-to-gold itinerary for travel agents visiting the LA sports centre within an overall sports themed itinerary. The campaign met all our expectations. We continuously conduct direct-mailing to our partners, media, tour operators, airlines and other contacts as well as a monthly newsletter and press releases.

 

Q: Strategies/ trends becoming more popular over time to promote in China?

A: Promotions will become more hi-tech, greater focus on IT with multi-media presentations to underscore strong promotional strategies.

 

Innovative thinker, Derek Galpin brands his country without ADS assistance

Innovative thinker, Derek Galpin brands his country without ADS assistance

 

 China Traveller

April 2009

 

A vast land full of natural beauty and rich tourism resources, Canada has long enjoyed positive brand awareness among global travellers. Derek Galpin, Regional Director, China & Japan, of the Canadian Tourism Commission is responsible for driving this awareness in China. A difficult task as Canada is one of few locations without approved destinations status (ADS). During a recent interview we had the opportunity to learn about brand Canada and it’s standing in the China outbound tourism market.

 

Q: How would you define China’s current outbound travel industry?

A: Despite the current global economic climate, we have yet to see any indication of a major drop in outbound travel demand. In the case of Canada, the number of visa applications, flight load factors and travel agent bookings all point to a steady level of interest from Chinese travellers.

 

Q: How would you define brand Canada?

A: Two years ago, Canada was branded as a vast land of mountains, mounties and moose. Although we still have an abundance of these iconic wonders, we are now presenting a different side of Canada, a side that includes fine dining, spa’s, golf and other fun activities. We have effectively rebranded Canada by creating increased awareness of the country which offers high emotional appeal and where travellers can experience a wide range of activities and experiences throughout the year.

 

Q: How is brand Canada perceived in the China market and who does it target?

A: Despite a lack of ADS, brand Canada enjoys a high level of awareness in China. Our brand attributes are clear in this market.

 

Q: What is the rough breakdown of Chinese arrivals to Canada? 

A: The past year experienced 290,000 arrivals through our two ports of entry connecting Canada to China, Vancouver and Toronto. This figure is broken-down to 160,000 travellers from mainland China and 130,000 from Hong Kong.

 

Q: What countries compete with brand Canada?

A: All long-haul destinations compete with Canada, including Australia, the European Union and the United States – all of these competitors have ADS.

 

Q: What are the major obstacles Canada has encountered during its quest to positively brand itself in China?

A: Our lack of ADS is assuredly our biggest obstacle. Without ADS, we are unable to directly market our brand to potential travellers nor can Chinese travel agencies promote Canada as a leisure destination. Once ADS is granted, I foresee a 30-35% jump in outbound travel from China to Canada over a one year period.

 

Q: What successes has brand Canada gained in the China market and what drove them?

A: A lack of ADS has forced us to be very creative. With this forced creativity, we’ve rolled out some very innovative and successful initiatives in China. One example is our ‘Perfect Family’ program, where we invited our ice skating celebrities Shen Xue and Zhao Hongbo to travel to British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario. Our celebrity family was accompanied by specific media which subsequently generated a lot of positive coverage with a total ad value of eight million Canadian Dollars. This program is part of our overall goal of greatly boosting media momentum, especially during the run-up to the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver. It also highlights Canada’s unique appeal as a family destination with an abundance of activities and experiences for all.

 

Q: What measures are you taking to combat the effects of a slowing global economy and declining travel market?

A: The current global economic downturn has not directly impacted our activities in China. The one area we are feeling macroeconomic forces is our budget. Since we are funded in Canadian Dollars, the RMB’s rising value reduces our buying power. By the same token, the strength of the RMB makes Canada a very affordable destination for Chinese travellers.

 

Q: What tactics does the CTC employ to generate better awareness of Canada in China?

A: Without ADS, we find ourselves operating with our hands tied behind our backs. The only outlets available to us are FAM trips and trade and consumer fairs. We are also tapping into some online activities. Still, even these limited initiatives have been beneficial in building positive awareness of Canada in China.

 

Q: Are there any new branding strategies you would highlight as becoming more popular over time? 

A: From an industry perspective, business, consumer and social media are becoming the best branding tools for destinations. Though this also applies to China, it is important to note that this market is very unique. The CTC operates all over the world – Japan, Germany, Australia and elsewhere – but all of these places have well established travel markets. China is still developing. For Canada, this development without ADS means a market with a growing number of incentive travel groups and high-end consumer FIT traffic, particularly family travel.

China Traveller

March 2009

 

With damaging storms, upheaval in Tibet, the Sichuan earthquake and the hosting of the Beijing Olympics, 2008 was expected to be an unassuming year for Chinese outbound travel. Initial figures collected from China’s exit ports however indicate that despite all the herculean challenges met, outbound growth remained surprisingly robust for most regions.

 

With the exception of troubled Thailand, South East Asian countries benefited significantly with overall high growth rates while Europe almost universally suffered under a cloud of downturn pessimism (complete table of figures on data page, pg. 7). Growth rates were also reversed in a number of African and Latin American countries, a serious issue of concern for developing countries reliant on foreign arrivals for job creation.

 

No surprise in that Hong Kong remains the most popular destination with over 17 million Mainland travellers visiting the Special Administrative Region in 2008, closely followed by Macau with over 15 million arrivals. Neighbouring Japan remains the global destination of choice for Chinese travellers receiving 1.55 million persons at a growth rate of 6.8% over 2007. Vietnam was the second largest recipient of Chinese visitors with 1.45 million at a whopping 58% growth over 2007. It is interesting to note the disparity in figures between China and Vietnam as destination itself only recorded 650,000 visitors. The disparity can been explained due to Vietnam sharing a border with China, a consequence of which Chinese figures include local border day trips, with the Chinese persons returning on the same day, whilst Vietnamese figures only include over night stay.   

 

The order of remaining neighbouring countries with the highest Chinese arrivals include: Korea in third place (1.34 million); Singapore surpasses Thailand for fourth place with 713,000 arrivals; Thailand (624,000); Malaysia (623,000); Taiwan replaces Indonesia for seventh place (279,000); Indonesia received 248,000 arrivals on the back of impressive 46% growth over 2007 while the Philippines came in last with 163,000 arrivals on negligible 1.7% growth.

 

Travellers to Australia continued to grow at 3.7% resulting in 413,000 arrivals. Australian tourism figures also reflect lower numbers than China’s (356,400) which is partially explained by China’s numbers including all types of travellers (business, students, relative visits etc.) as opposed to pure tourism figures. New Zealand received 73,000 visitors at a growth of 7.7% over 2007. The United States, taking advantage of its fairly recent ADS (Approved Destination Status) status surged ahead with 775,000 arrivals, 8.5% growth on 2007 figures, while Canada almost reported zero growth resulting in 230,000 visitors.

 

With the exception of Russia (790,000 visitors at 7.2% growth over 2007) Europe performed poorly with Germany recording 253,000 visitors, a decline of 6.9%. The UK received 234,000 visitors (decline of 1.4% over 2007) while arrivals to France declined by 5.9% over 2007 resulting in 202,000 arrivals. The blanket drop in European arrivals has a number of influencing factors. Firstly, the number of natural calamities to hit China in 2008, along with the hosting of the Beijing Olympics, was always going to have the greatest impact on long haul destinations, and with Europe being the greatest recipient of Chinese outbound travel for so many years it was natural that for them to feel the greatest pinch. Canada, another long haul destination, as previously mentioned also reported near zero growth but the United States avoided the same fate due to its stronger business and student exchange relations with China as well as its newly acquired ADS status. Fearing illegal immigration, Europe also raised the bar on visa requirements for Chinese travellers that clearly had a direct relationship on the drop in tourist numbers. Lastly, the now infamous Olympic torch relay spectacle that occurred in Paris, protests in the UK compounded by the German Chancellor meeting with the Dalai Lama in the wake of unrest in Tibet galvanised potential Chinese tourists into an anti-Europe group.   

 

Brazil also received less visitors than in 2007 with a decline of 1.2% resulting in 23,000 visitors but the country to suffer the steepest decline in arrivals according to available information is 2010 FIFA World Cup host South Africa attracting a mere 34,000 Chinese visitors, a decline of 13.5%. In the Middle East the UAE registered robust growth of 19.8% totalling 118,000 visitors.   

 

Comparing the available Chinese figures with the actual destination arrival figures however, it becomes clear yet again the discrepancies that exist due to a number of reasons including the infamous Hong Kong/Macau factor as well as the fact that many Chinese travellers concurrently visit multiple destinations, the second and third stop, or more, of which are not reported at exit ports. Taiwan reported an additional 50,000 arrivals, while Singapore registered over 300,000 more Chinese visitors. Thailand reported an additional 150,000 plus visitors while Turkey and New Zealand reported an impressive 35,000 (more than double the Chinese figures) and 37,000 additional arrivals respectively. As allured to above, Hong Kong in particular and Macau account for much of these discrepancies serving as a hub for transferring flights.

 

 

Amnuay Thiamkeerakul, Tourism Authority of Thailand's China Director, the helmsman leading his brand out of the storm

Amnuay Thiamkeerakul, Tourism Authority of Thailand's China Director, the helmsman leading his brand out of the storm

 

China Traveller

March 2009

 

Q: How would you define China’s outbound travel industry at the beginning of 2009?

A: China’s outbound travel industry has been affected by the global financial crisis, but not seriously. Outbound travelers are still willing and able to go on leisure tours and companies still need to attend MICE related events, and lucky for us, Thailand is still the perfect choice for these types of travelers.

 

Q: How would you define the Chinese traveller?

A: The Chinese traveler comes from the nation’s developed urban centers and is motivated to go abroad for different reasons – leisure, business and so on. They want to go experience destinations that offer a wealth of tourism resources, such as natural beauty, fun activities, great food and more. There is good growth in FIT travelers now and while Europe and the US were very attractive, due to the current situation many are choosing to travel to neighboring countries more. Furthermore, where more high end travelers also used to favor the West more, many come of the high end segment travel to Thailand to stay in resorts, play golf, go to the spa’s and enjoy our unique cuisine.

 

Q: What sorts of trends have emerged among Chinese travellers and which ones do you foresee increasing in popularity?

A: With current outbound travel just under 50 million a year, and a potential outbound travel market of over 250 million, the most important trend to take note of is growth. China’s enormous potential translates into enormous hope in the industry.

 

Q: How would you define brand Thailand and what does it offer travelers?

A: In a word: ‘Amazing’. We offer an amazing portfolio at an amazing value, lending on our tagline for 2009 ‘Amazing Thailand, Amazing Value’. While our destination is great value for money, we have nevertheless suggested to some tour operators to raise package prices to more reason levels that all those visiting will have a better experience. Thailand as a destination was opened-up by European backpackers almost thirty years ago, and while we will always welcome all people to Thailand, few countries have the wide variety of offering we have. We furthermore brand extensively in the luxury market. We have something for everyone to enjoy Thailand and as such, stand as a comprehensive brand.  

 

Q: How is brand Thailand perceived in the China market and who does it target?

A: Brand Thailand enjoys a high level of positive awareness in the China market. We are known for our hospitality, rich culture, delicious cuisine and beautiful scenery, all of which can be enjoyed at a great value given our proximity and easy connection to China’s major cities, which is where we focus our targeting – Beijing area, Shanghai area, Guangzhou area and the Chengdu/Kunming area.

 

Q: What is the rough breakdown of Chinese arrivals to Thailand, which provinces/cities do travelers predominantly come from?

A: Arrivals stand at around 1,000,000 and are drawn from the all over China, namely the Beijing (25%), Shanghai (25%), Guangzhou (25%) and the rest of China (25%).

 

Q: What countries compete with brand Thailand?

A: China’s travel markets, both domestic and outbound, are immense. With such large outbound figures and such great potential to grow those figures, countries don’t compete – we promote. We promote in a market that’s far from saturated… In fact, if I had to name a competitor I’d say it’s China’s domestic travel market, that’s a market I want a piece of. There is also a new generation of FIT travelers who speak English, more independent minded, that now make up 25% of our arrivals. We also have high repeat visit rates in both lower and higher income segments.

 

Q: What are the major obstacles Thailand has encountered during its quest to positively brand itself in front of a Chinese audience?

A: The recent political unrest has been our biggest obstacle. The travel sector is key to the Thai economy, and we’re currently working to show would be travelers that Thailand is a perfectly safe destination.  We are doing this by inviting the media to Thailand to see, first hand, that we still have the same friendly people and beautiful scenery as we always have. We have also taken concrete steps such as placing a waiver on visa fees from March until June for many countries including China.

 

Q: What successes has brand Thailand gained in the China market and what drove them?

A: In 1988 Thailand became the third nation to gain ADS status after Hong Kong and Macau. This has given us a long history of travel exchange and cultural ties which contributes greatly to the success of brand Thailand in China.

 

Q: How to combat the slowing global economy?

A: We’ve waved visa fees through to the 5th of June, which when combined with low airfares, makes a tour to Thailand extremely attractive. We will also continue to remind domestic travelers of Thailand’s amazing value.

PATA Director of Strategic Intelligence Centre

PATA Director of Strategic Intelligence Centre

 China Traveller

January, 2009

 

In our first Thought Leadership column we interviewed John Koldowski, Director of the Strategic Intelligence Centre of Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA), to gain his insight of the travel industry affected by the global financial crisis.  

 

Q: Can you provide us with a background of the travel industry up until the financial crisis struck?

A: Over the last 5 years, international travel & tourism has generally been growing in both arrival numbers and revenues earned. The average rate of growth for arrivals has been at around 7% per annum, while revenue growth has averaged at around 13% per annum over the same period. So the last few years in particular have seen relatively strong growth.

 

Q: What about the Asian market?

A: Asia has been a particularly strong performer, in both arrival numbers and revenue. Even though earlier in the year (2008), expectations were for a reduction in the growth of international arrivals, we were still bullish about Asia and were still predicting growth, albeit at a much slower rate.

 

Q: Has the crisis already struck or are we already experiencing its peak?

A: We have experienced growth so far this year (2008), but at a much lower rate than 2007. This is true for nearly all sub-regions within Asia Pacific, the only exception being the Americas, where the trend has been stronger growth over 2007.

 

Q: What about China?

A: The last few months have seen strong contractions in international arrivals, both at the aggregate inbound level and for foreign arrivals. Although China has a blooming domestic market, globalization will not allow any country to go unscathed. So it appears the downward trend will not be reversed in the short term.

 

Q: What does the immediate future hold in store for us?

A: This is what we are currently analyzing. But I would first like to speak of a related matter. In the aviation sector, our lifeline to the travel industry, the trends are all negative. Particularly through the month of September 2008, the Asia Pacific region all but led the global decline. According to the data from IATA, we found a very poor year-to-date result in Revenue Passenger Kilometers and freight movements as well. I just spoke with a friend from the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines, who informed me that in terms of actual passengers carried, June was flat and July saw a contraction in numbers on the Asia Pacific airline fleet. The negative forecasts for airports are therefore understandably somber. Premium traffic growth in particular has been taking a beating. And the forward bookings are looking soft too.

 

Q: We noticed many analysts have adjusted their economic outlook for 2008 and 2009, will there be no growth in the travel sector?

A: While the economic outlook is certainly weaker, there is still growth. It will vary greatly from country to country. But these top-level aggregate numbers are masking a more worrying concern, that of profitability. For example, the price of aviation fuel, while coming down in price, it is still unstable. The operating margin for the world airline fleet is very weak at the moment, and operating losses are expected to continue into 2009 at least. If this holds true, the aviation sector will only see profitability in a year.

 

Q: We are seeing news reports of airlines reducing or eliminating routes with weak demand, what impact will this have?

A: This leads us to another scenario, with reduced capacity, demand will push air ticket prices higher and it will not be as easy to get the booking you want, on the route you want, on the day you want and at the time you want. Air travel will get even harder, at least over the immediate future.

 

Q: Is it all bad news?

A: It is not all bad news. Some operators actually perform very well during a recession. I read an article from Lodging Econometrics recently stating that while there has been a reduction in the number of hotel projects in Asia Pacific between the first and second quarters of this year (2008), total planned room capacity is still on the rise. I am sure a very large proportion of that construction is planned for China.

 

Q: Let’s get back to China and our tourism sector. Will China still be the engine of growth during the recovery period?

A: Yes. Some analysts firmly believe that emerging economies such as China could do very well in a global economic downturn. In the long-run, the world economy always expands and then goes through periods of contraction. But the world will look different, from where new funds will come. Not only in China, but the rest of the world, to the fragmentation of our industry and the emergence of ‘long-tail economics’ into the business world, it is up to us to identify and capture the advantage when and where it appears. Over the medium-term however, we still expect the travel industry, buoyed by the business element, to generate growth. It will just be at much lower levels than we have been used to over the past half decade.

 

Mr. Koldowski is responsible for the collection, analysis and interpretation of travel statistics for PATA.